TODAY'S TANTILLO TAKEAWAY: 

In advertising, remember the target in the term Target Market

and try to hit it as closely as possible.

The Marketing Doctor says:

Obama Should Have Spent The Money On Ad Buys

Folks, a few “back of the envelope” notes about last night’s Barack Obama infomercial:

1)  I think it was overproduced. (It turns out that the director was the same guy who did Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth.)   The last time we saw an infomercial like this was back in 1992.  Clinton’s “A Man From Hope” video first ran at the Democratic convention and then was replayed again and again nationally in paid-for spots. (See the NY Times’ coverage of it here).

Clinton’s video was carefully produced too, but I’d argue not overproduced. Also, the intention of “A Man From Hope” was to introduce a little-known figure (Clinton) to a wide audience.  It was essentially a short bio pic.  Obama’s piece last night had some of that, but its slickness (i.e., sweeping cinematography, dramatic pauses, presidential-looking desk for Obama and that soaring soundtrack) might have just reinforced the idea in some people’s minds that Obama is “The (self-appointed) One.”  I can see this back-firing among an older demographic.

2)  That said, it might work for younger voters who will be wowed by the call to action —something they don’t remember hearing before in presidential politics.  For some historical perspective, check out documentarian Errol Morris’ piece here (and watch some of the amazing clips he’s gathered from elections past —JFK visiting the family diner and hearing about rising costs and fears about being able to send the kids to college is a hoot).

3)  Who knows, maybe this wasn’t for the undecideds at all.  It’s possible, as a politically-wise friend of mine observed, that the infomercial was actually aimed at firing up the base.  Supporting this possibility is the final cutaway to a live Obama event where the candidate frankly seemed to be saying as much to the electioneering troops.

And my back of the envelope conclusion… I believe that he would have done better with more individual, highly targeted ad buys.  But, who knows, given the amount of money in the Obama coffers, he can probably do both.

Still, the real question is —does this hurt him or help him?  Again, it might help him with the younger demographic, but I think the slickness of the production might turn off people in an older demographic who were leaning his way and were looking for more authenticity from last night’s piece.

And a note about the polls from the side of me that is still the old teacher of statistics with a doctorate in applied research psychology:

Something that’s not being talked about is the breakdown in undecideds and its relationship to the margin of error.  Fact is, if the undecideds are equal to or more than the margin of error in any poll then you’ve got a real problem on your hands in terms of the representativeness of that poll.

Here’s an example.  Say you’ve got Obama at 49% and McCain at 45% with a 3% margin of error plus or minus.  That leaves 6% undecided.  I think you see where I’m going with this: if this undecided group isn’t split evenly, then the poll results may be way out of whack with reality.

And remember, it’s always easier when you keep marketing and branding in mind.